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Nigeria is a multi-ethnic and culturally diverse federation which consists of 36 autonomous states and the Federal Capital Territory. The political landscape is partly dominated by the ruling All Progressives Congress party (APC) which holds 217 out of 360 seats at the National Assembly; 64 out of 109 seats in the Senate; and 19 out of 36 State Governors. Muhammadu Buhari secured a second term at the 2019 presidential elections, while the results were contested by the main opposition party the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Since 2011, the Nigerian security landscape has been consistently shaped by the war against Boko Haram terrorist group in the northern states. This adds to a lasting crisis in the oil-rich Niger Delta, where several non-state armed groups attack oil companies and state-owned pipelines.
Nigeria is highly vulnerable to the global economic disruption caused by COVID-19, particularly due to the pronounced decline in oil prices and spikes in risk aversion in global capital markets. Nationally, 40 percent of Nigerians (83 million people) live below the poverty line, while another 25 percent (53 million) are vulnerable. With COVID-19, many of these 53 million vulnerable people could fall into poverty.
The macroeconomic situation is more challenging now than in 2015-2016, when oil prices fell sharply and Nigeria experienced its first recession in 25 years. In the current situation, Nigeria has fewer buffers and policy instruments to cushion adverse effects.
Unemployment and underemployment are expected to increase, affecting poor households and increasing the share of the population vulnerable to falling into poverty. Only agriculture is expected to positively contribute to growth in 2020.
